Willful Ignorance

Author: Herbert I. Weisberg
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 1118593790
Format: PDF, ePub, Mobi
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An original account of willful ignorance and how this principle relates to modern probability and statistical methods Through a series of colorful stories about great thinkers and the problems they chose to solve, the author traces the historical evolution of probability and explains how statistical methods have helped to propel scientific research. However, the past success of statistics has depended on vast, deliberate simplifications amounting to willful ignorance, and this very success now threatens future advances in medicine, the social sciences, and other fields. Limitations of existing methods result in frequent reversals of scientific findings and recommendations, to the consternation of both scientists and the lay public. Willful Ignorance: The Mismeasure of Uncertainty exposes the fallacy of regarding probability as the full measure of our uncertainty. The book explains how statistical methodology, though enormously productive and influential over the past century, is approaching a crisis. The deep and troubling divide between qualitative and quantitative modes of research, and between research and practice, are reflections of this underlying problem. The author outlines a path toward the re-engineering of data analysis to help close these gaps and accelerate scientific discovery. Willful Ignorance: The Mismeasure of Uncertainty presents essential information and novel ideas that should be of interest to anyone concerned about the future of scientific research. The book is especially pertinent for professionals in statistics and related fields, including practicing and research clinicians, biomedical and social science researchers, business leaders, and policy-makers.

Willful Ignorance

Author: Herbert I. Weisberg
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 0470890444
Format: PDF, Kindle
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This provocative new book posits how the tacit principle of "willful ignorance" has led to a deep divide between qualitative and quantitative modes of research that will increasingly constrain scientific progress unless bridged by a broadened conception of statistical methodology. It presents numerous examples, both hypothetical and real, to illustrate and support the main premise; offers a non-technical, historical survey of core statistical concepts; and speculates about the future evolution of statistics. Clinicians will find this book to be of particular interest, as will others interested in observational statistics.

Willful Ignorance

Author: Herbert I. Weisberg
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 111859441X
Format: PDF, Docs
Download Now
An original account of willful ignorance and how this principle relates to modern probability and statistical methods Through a series of colorful stories about great thinkers and the problems they chose to solve, the author traces the historical evolution of probability and explains how statistical methods have helped to propel scientific research. However, the past success of statistics has depended on vast, deliberate simplifications amounting to willful ignorance, and this very success now threatens future advances in medicine, the social sciences, and other fields. Limitations of existing methods result in frequent reversals of scientific findings and recommendations, to the consternation of both scientists and the lay public. Willful Ignorance: The Mismeasure of Uncertainty exposes the fallacy of regarding probability as the full measure of our uncertainty. The book explains how statistical methodology, though enormously productive and influential over the past century, is approaching a crisis. The deep and troubling divide between qualitative and quantitative modes of research, and between research and practice, are reflections of this underlying problem. The author outlines a path toward the re-engineering of data analysis to help close these gaps and accelerate scientific discovery. Willful Ignorance: The Mismeasure of Uncertainty presents essential information and novel ideas that should be of interest to anyone concerned about the future of scientific research. The book is especially pertinent for professionals in statistics and related fields, including practicing and research clinicians, biomedical and social science researchers, business leaders, and policy-makers.

An Introduction to Medical Statistics

Author: Martin Bland
Publisher: OUP Oxford
ISBN: 0191002992
Format: PDF, Kindle
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Now in its Fourth Edition, An Introduction to Medical Statistics continues to be a 'must-have' textbook for anyone who needs a clear logical guide to the subject. Written in an easy-to-understand style and packed with real life examples, the text clearly explains the statistical principles used in the medical literature. Taking readers through the common statistical methods seen in published research and guidelines, the text focuses on how to interpret and analyse statistics for clinical practice. Using extracts from real studies, the author illustrates how data can be employed correctly and incorrectly in medical research helping readers to evaluate the statistics they encounter and appropriately implement findings in clinical practice. End of chapter exercises, case studies and multiple choice questions help readers to apply their learning and develop their own interpretative skills. This thoroughly revised edition includes new chapters on meta-analysis, missing data, and survival analysis.

Philosophy and Probability

Author: Timothy Childers
Publisher: Oxford University Press
ISBN: 0199661820
Format: PDF
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Probability is increasingly important for our understanding of the world. What is probability? How do we model it, and how do we use it? Timothy Childers presents a lively introduction to the foundations of probability and to philosophical issues it raises. He keeps technicalities to a minimum, and assumes no prior knowledge of the subject. He explains the main interpretations of probability-frequentist, propensity, classical, Bayesian, and objective Bayesian-and uses stimulating examples to bring the subject to life. All students of philosophy will benefit from an understanding of probability, and this is the book to provide it.

What If There Were No Significance Tests

Author: Lisa L. Harlow
Publisher: Routledge
ISBN: 131724284X
Format: PDF, Kindle
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The classic edition of What If There Were No Significance Tests? highlights current statistical inference practices. Four areas are featured as essential for making inferences: sound judgment, meaningful research questions, relevant design, and assessing fit in multiple ways. Other options (data visualization, replication or meta-analysis), other features (mediation, moderation, multiple levels or classes), and other approaches (Bayesian analysis, simulation, data mining, qualitative inquiry) are also suggested. The Classic Edition’s new Introduction demonstrates the ongoing relevance of the topic and the charge to move away from an exclusive focus on NHST, along with new methods to help make significance testing more accessible to a wider body of researchers to improve our ability to make more accurate statistical inferences. Part 1 presents an overview of significance testing issues. The next part discusses the debate in which significance testing should be rejected or retained. The third part outlines various methods that may supplement significance testing procedures. Part 4 discusses Bayesian approaches and methods and the use of confidence intervals versus significance tests. The book concludes with philosophy of science perspectives. Rather than providing definitive prescriptions, the chapters are largely suggestive of general issues, concerns, and application guidelines. The editors allow readers to choose the best way to conduct hypothesis testing in their respective fields. For anyone doing research in the social sciences, this book is bound to become "must" reading. Ideal for use as a supplement for graduate courses in statistics or quantitative analysis taught in psychology, education, business, nursing, medicine, and the social sciences, the book also benefits independent researchers in the behavioral and social sciences and those who teach statistics.

Bias and Causation

Author: Herbert I. Weisberg
Publisher: Wiley
ISBN: 0470631090
Format: PDF, ePub, Mobi
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A one-of-a-kind resource on identifying and dealing with bias in statistical research on causal effects Do cell phones cause cancer? Can a new curriculum increase student achievement? Determining what the real causes of such problems are, and how powerful their effects may be, are central issues in research across various fields of study. Some researchers are highly skeptical of drawing causal conclusions except in tightly controlled randomized experiments, while others discount the threats posed by different sources of bias, even in less rigorous observational studies. Bias and Causation presents a complete treatment of the subject, organizing and clarifying the diverse types of biases into a conceptual framework. The book treats various sources of bias in comparative studies—both randomized and observational—and offers guidance on how they should be addressed by researchers. Utilizing a relatively simple mathematical approach, the author develops a theory of bias that outlines the essential nature of the problem and identifies the various sources of bias that are encountered in modern research. The book begins with an introduction to the study of causal inference and the related concepts and terminology. Next, an overview is provided of the methodological issues at the core of the difficulties posed by bias. Subsequent chapters explain the concepts of selection bias, confounding, intermediate causal factors, and information bias along with the distortion of a causal effect that can result when the exposure and/or the outcome is measured with error. The book concludes with a new classification of twenty general sources of bias and practical advice on how mathematical modeling and expert judgment can be combined to achieve the most credible causal conclusions. Throughout the book, examples from the fields of medicine, public policy, and education are incorporated into the presentation of various topics. In addition, six detailed case studies illustrate concrete examples of the significance of biases in everyday research. Requiring only a basic understanding of statistics and probability theory, Bias and Causation is an excellent supplement for courses on research methods and applied statistics at the upper-undergraduate and graduate level. It is also a valuable reference for practicing researchers and methodologists in various fields of study who work with statistical data. This book was selected as the 2011 Ziegel Prize Winner in Technometrics for the best book reviewed by the journal. It is also the winner of the 2010 PROSE Award for Mathematics from The American Publishers Awards for Professional and Scholarly Excellence

Your Guide to Succeed in University

Author: Aly Madhavji
Publisher: Aly Madhavji
ISBN: 0992102804
Format: PDF, Kindle
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How to succeed in university or college? Every student wants to know; every student tries to discover his/her own strategies to succeed - some work, some don't. Becoming successful in university sometimes feels like trial and error - with potentially serious consequences for failures. The goal of this guide - Your Guide to Succeed in University - is to help students in university and college to become confident, well-rounded and successful in their overall education experience. This guide aims to equip you - the students - with the necessary tools for success in university and college. This guide will help students with topics such as building a solid foundation in the first few weeks, efficient techniques for studying and preparing for exams, getting involved, finding the right mentors, networking, job searching with potential employers and preparing for a successful career. ---- Do you ever wonder why most alumni or adults say, “University was the best years of my life”? Regardless of what age you start university, when you finish, you should look back and share that similar feeling. University is about learning to explore, discovering who you are and who you want to be and creating the foundation for a lifetime of successes. University is the place where I learnt to make the most of opportunities and became who I wanted to be. It made me aware that just attending university isn’t a silver bullet to success, not unless you take control. The university experience will provide endless possibilities and opportunities, but it’s up to you to take the first step. You will face a roller coaster of emotions. You’ll feel excited and scared, challenged and stimulated, but when all is said and done, YOU determine how you want to look back on this experience. Starting university can be the most sensational experience of your life, but it can also be the most overwhelming. In fact, it can be downright scary if you do not equip yourself with a plan on how to navigate through university. That is why I wrote this guide. My goal is to not only share my experience and lessons learned, but, to channel this into a helpful guide that may help you adapt rapidly and efficiently to ensure that you make the most of your higher education experience. This guide will not define success for you. You define success and you can start by creating personal goals. Take some time and think about where you want to be in a couple of years, when you graduate, and 10 years from now. You could have educational goals, career goals, salary aspirations, a list of activities to learn, family and other types of goals. Try writing these goals down and revisit them every couple months to see how you’re doing. By taking the first step of writing them down, it shows that you are committed to making these goals a reality. This guide will discuss topics ranging from what you’ll experience in your first few weeks of university, finding a mentor, networking, and post-graduation. At the end, there is a summary of the main takeaways and the top 10 themes. This guide will help you get through the tough times and excel in the good times of university to achieve your definition of success; it may even become your survival guide.

Statistical Methods for Comparative Studies

Author: Sharon Roe Anderson
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 0470317205
Format: PDF, ePub, Mobi
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Brings together techniques for the design and analysis of comparative studies. Methods include multivariate matching, standardization and stratification, analysis of covariance, logit analysis, and log linear analysis. Quantitatively assesses techniques' effectiveness in reducing bias. Discusses hypothesis testing, survival analysis, repeated measure design, and causal inference from comparative studies.

Statistics Done Wrong

Author: Alex Reinhart
Publisher: No Starch Press
ISBN: 1593276206
Format: PDF, ePub, Docs
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Statistics Done Wrong describes how researchers often go wrong and teaches you the best practices for avoiding their mistakes.