Should We Risk It

Author: Daniel M. Kammen
Publisher: Princeton University Press
ISBN: 0691188319
Format: PDF, Docs
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How dangerous is smoking? What are the risks of nuclear power or of climate change? What are the chances of dying on an airplane? More importantly, how do we use this information once we have it? The demand for risk analysts who are able to answer such questions has grown exponentially in recent years. Yet programs to train these analysts have not kept pace. In this book, Daniel Kammen and David Hassenzahl address that problem. They draw together, organize, and seek to unify previously disparate theories and methodologies connected with risk analysis for health, environmental, and technological problems. They also provide a rich variety of case studies and worked problems, meeting the growing need for an up-to-date book suitable for teaching and individual learning. The specific problems addressed in the book include order-of-magnitude estimation, dose-response calculations, exposure assessment, extrapolations and forecasts based on experimental or natural data, modeling and the problems of complexity in models, fault-tree analysis, managing and estimating uncertainty, and social theories of risk and risk communication. The authors cover basic and intermediate statistics, as well as Monte Carlo methods, Bayesian analysis, and various techniques of uncertainty and forecast evaluation. The volume's unique approach will appeal to a wide range of people in environmental science and studies, health care, and engineering, as well as to policy makers confronted by the increasing number of decisions requiring risk and cost/benefit analysis. Should We Risk It? will become a standard text in courses involving risk and decision analysis and in courses of applied statistics with a focus on environmental and technological issues.

A Short Guide to Risk Appetite

Author: David Hillson
Publisher: Routledge
ISBN: 1351961543
Format: PDF, ePub, Mobi
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How much risk should we take? A Short Guide to Risk Appetite sets out to help all those who need to decide how much risk can be taken in a particular risky and important situation. David Hillson and Ruth Murray-Webster introduce the RARA Model to explain the complementary and central roles of Risk Appetite and Risk Attitude, and along the way they show how other risk-related concepts fit in. Risk thresholds are the external expression of inherent risk appetite, and the challenge is how to set the right thresholds. By progressively deconstructing the RARA Model, the authors show that the essential control step is our ability to choose an appropriate risk attitude. The book contains practical guidance to setting risk thresholds that take proper account of the influences of organisational risk culture and the individual risk preferences of key stakeholders. Alongside this, individuals and organisations need to choose the risk attitude that will optimise their chances of achieving the desired objectives.

Risk and Our Pedagogical Relation to Children

Author: Stephen J. Smith
Publisher: SUNY Press
ISBN: 9780791435946
Format: PDF, Mobi
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Shows that "risk" is a valuable and pedagogical experience for children on the playground (and for the adults that share that experience with them) in preparation for the precarious world which children find beyond the playground.

Risk Is Right

Author: John Piper
Publisher: Crossway
ISBN: 1433535343
Format: PDF, ePub, Mobi
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Encourages Christians to live a fuller life by taking risks, knowing that Jesus will be with them as they do so.

Democracy at Risk

Author: Stephen Macedo
Publisher: Brookings Institution Press
ISBN: 9780815797869
Format: PDF, ePub
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Voter turnout was unusually high in the 2004 U.S. presidential election. At first glance, that level of participation—largely spurred by war in Iraq and a burgeoning culture war at home—might look like vindication of democracy. If the recent past is any indication, however, too many Americans will soon return to apathy and inactivity. Clearly, all is not well in our civic life. Citizens are participating in public affairs too infrequently, too unequally, and in too few venues to develop and sustain a robust democracy. This important new book explores the problem of America's decreasing involvement in its own affairs. D emocracy at Risk reveals the dangers of civic disengagement for the future of representative democracy. The authors, all eminent scholars, undertake three main tasks: documenting recent trends in civic engagement, exploring the influence that the design of political institutions and public policies have had on those trends, and recommending steps that will increase the amount and quality of civic engagement in America. The authors focus their attention on three key areas: the electoral process, including elections and the way people get involved; the impact of location, including demographic shifts and changing development patterns; and the critical role of nonprofit organizations and voluntary associations, including the philanthropy that help keep them going. This important project, initially sponsored by the American Political Science Association, tests the proposition that social science has useful insights on the state of our democratic life. Most importantly, it charts a course for reinvigorating civic participation in the world's oldest democracy. The authors: Stephen Macedo (Princeton University), Yvette Alex-Assensoh (Indiana University), Jeffrey M. Berry (Tufts), Michael Brintnall (American Political Science Association), David E. Campbell (Notre Dame), Luis Ricardo Fraga (Stanford), Archon Fung (Harvard), William A. Galston (University of Maryland), Christopher F. Karpowitz (Princeton), Margaret Levi (University of Washington), Meira Levinson (Radcliffe Institute), Keena Lipsitz (California–Berkeley), Richard G. Niemi (University of Rochester), Robert D. Putnam (Harvard), Wendy M. Rahn (University of Minnesota), Keith Reeves (Swarthmore), Rob Reich (Stanford), Robert R. Rodgers (Princeton), Todd Swanstrom (Saint Louis University), and Katherine Cramer Walsh (University of Wisconsin).

Quantitative Risk Assessment

Author: Terje Aven
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 1139496433
Format: PDF, Kindle
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Quantitative risk assessments cannot eliminate risk, nor can they resolve trade-offs. They can, however, guide principled risk management and reduction - if the quality of assessment is high and decision makers understand how to use it. This book builds a unifying scientific framework for discussing and evaluating the quality of risk assessments and whether they are fit for purpose. Uncertainty is a central topic. In practice, uncertainties about inputs are rarely reflected in assessments, with the result that many safety measures are considered unjustified. Other topics include the meaning of a probability, the use of probability models, the use of Bayesian ideas and techniques, and the use of risk assessment in a practical decision-making context. Written for professionals, as well as graduate students and researchers, the book assumes basic probability, statistics and risk assessment methods. Examples make concepts concrete, and three extended case studies show the scientific framework in action.

Methods for Risk Assessment of Transgenic Plants

Author: Klaus Ammann
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 3034880332
Format: PDF, Kindle
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For centuries, TK has been used almost exclusively by its creators, that is, indigenous and local communities. Access to, use of and handing down of TK has been regulated by local laws, customs and tmditions. Some TK has been freely accessible by all members of an indigenous or local community and has been freely exchanged with other communities; other TK has only been known to particular individuals within these communities such as shamans, and has been handed down only to particular individuals of thc next generation. Over many generations, indigenous and local communities have accumulated a great deal of TK which has generally been adapted, developed and improved by the generations that followed. For a long time, Western anthropologists and other scientists have generally been able to freely access TK and have documented it in their works. Still, this TK was only seldom used outside the indigenous and local communities that created it. More recently, however, Western scientists have become aware that TK is neither outdated nor valueless knowledge, but, instead, 1 can be useful to solve some of the problems facing today's world. Modem science, for example, has shown an increased interest in some fornls ofTK as knowledge that can be used in 4 research and development (R&D) activities and be integrated in modem innovations. This holds especially true for TK regarding genetic resources, which has been integrated in modem 6 phannaceuticals,s agro-chemicals and seed.